Climate shifting alters agriculture landscape
Agricultural Research Council (ARC) specialist Harold Weepener said the changes were slow, but studies showed climates from the northern parts of South Africa were gradually shifting south.
Regions along the Wild Coast and the eastern shore could become more sub-tropical and start to support products currently grown in provinces like Mpumalanga and Limpopo.
Areas of the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal could become more suitable for growing nuts, like macadamias, while Limpopo could no longer be suitable for nut production by the year 2090.
According to Weepener, the research stretches over many years and is used to predict likely conditions up to the year 2100.
Findings include that the Sundays River Valley, where citrus is grown, could become suitable for macadamia nuts and avocados. But citrus could become completely unsuitable and would either have to shift to another region or be set aside.
Stock farmers may also need to plant alternative grass types for feed, and over a longer period of time certain areas could become less and less conducive for farming with animals. "Dairy farmers could be first to feel the effect among stock farmers. Milk production is very easily affected by different climates, so just changing feed might not be enough," he said.
Further inland, effects may vary and might not be as prominent as they are expected to be along the coast.
Weepener conceded that the research looked only at changing weather patterns, and did not take into account factors like any technological advancement within agriculture or the possible occurrence of diseases among plants and animals brought on by the climate changes. He said these changes were not expected to happen overnight, but all the scenarios looked at showed the same pattern over different periods.
Six different models are being researched, each looking at different levels of sustainability measures being implemented by the government and the agricultural sector. "The model we refer to most takes current factors into account and assumes no sustainability changes are made. But even on the model where industries become as sustainable as possible, climate effects still show a rising trend," Weepener said.
Their conclusion is that farmers and the industries they represent will have to adapt over time.
Agri Development Solutions chairman Johann Bornman said research like this was very useful and should be considered together with additional studies to get a comprehensive picture of possible future agricultural developments. "A number of factors could influence our agricultural economy, and climate change is just one of them," Bornman said.
"The current drought cycle, population growth and the use of our natural resources could have a major effect on the province's economy."
Aside from the current continuous drought, Bornman said the availability and price of water was the most crucial aspect of climate change, and could end up affecting consumers' pockets.
Key to the future would be the management of the land and natural resources, particularly water. One option was to turn to "underperforming" areas to keep up with the additional demand. "That being said, we should be careful of radical changes without putting enough thought into it," Bornman said.
"There may come a time when new products should be brought into different regions but more time and informed decision-making is required before we do anything drastic."
Source: Herald
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